The essential basis for the ongoing work on a new 2015 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan is a realistic assessment of the future development of traffic in Germany which also distributes (apportions) the forecast aggregate values to the specific transport infrastructure network. For this purpose, an updated and scientifically sound traffic forecast was prepared on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, with 2030 as the horizon year.
Forecast for 2030 – the overall process
A three-phase forecast procedure (global forecast, apportionment to the network and feedback) is used to identify and present the nationwide transport interconnectivity in the form of origin-destination matrices of freight and passenger traffic for the baseline year of 2010 and the forecast horizon of 2030, plus the tonne and passenger kilometres and vehicle mileages of the individual modes of transport on the corresponding infrastructures, calculated by apportionment to the network. This procedure is a major foundation for long-term planning of the traffic system, policymaking and the spatial structure.
The overall project has been divided into the following six work packages:
- Work package 1 – preparation of a regionalized structural data forecast
- Work package 2 – preparation of the forecast of maritime traffic and inland traffic to and from seaports
- Work package 3 – preparation of the forecast of nationwide transport interconnectivity for 2030, taking account of air traffic
- Work package 4 – sectoral forecast / network apportionment (road)
- Work package 5 – sectoral forecast / network apportionment (rail)
- Work package 6 – sectoral forecast / network apportionment (waterway)
The individual work packages are closely related to one another.
The forecast of the demographic and economic structural data of the districts, Germany’s external trade flows and the variables relevant to mapping cross-border traffic was carried out within the scope of the project described here (work package 1) and used as a basis for the traffic forecast. The distinctive features of 2008 and 2009 (financial and economic crisis) have been taken into account. The basic demographic parameters (population, economically active persons, households, schoolchildren) for the baseline year of 2010 and the forecast year of 2030 were prepared by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development. Demographic, economic and traffic trends were taken into account in scenario-building. The final report of work package 1 can be downloaded.
The volume of inland traffic to and from seaports is subject to different determinants from those to which continental traffic is subject. For this reason, maritime traffic and inland traffic to and from seaports were considered separately in work package 2 and included in the overall traffic forecast. One of the major input variables was the regionalized external trade forecast from work package 1. The final report of work package 2 can be downloaded.
Work package 3 – the analysis and forecast of nationwide transport interconnectivity for passenger and freight traffic – was one of the key areas of the activities. Work package 3 also addresses air traffic. Taking a macro forecast as a starting point, the regionalized traffic demand for the baseline year and the forecast year was prepared. To present all the supply features of the modes, intermodal network relations were prepared from the individual networks in work package 3. Also in work package 3, the results of the scenario process were translated into traffic demand. In addition, work package 3 involved analyzing and forecasting, on the basis of the traffic demand, the environmental impact generated by the traffic, especially emissions of the following greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4).
In work packages 4, 5 and 6, the network bases were prepared for the road, rail and waterway modes and the traffic flows from work package 3 were apportioned, using appropriate methods, to these transport networks for the baseline year and the forecast year. Thus, the volume of traffic on the networks was calculated for both points in time. These traffic volumes form an important basis for the evaluation calculation of measures.
The networks and network features generated in work packages 4 to 6 were merged in work package 3 to form an intermodal network and used to calculate transport interconnectivity and the modal split. Provision was made for feedback from the apportionment results of the individual modes as part of the preparation of the traffic demand in work package 3 in order to establish consistency and a high quality of results here, too.
All traffic flows that touch the territory of Germany were included. i.e. both flows with their origin and/or destination in Germany and transit traffic that uses German transport infrastructure – or could potentially use it if the supply conditions were to change. Air traffic that merely flies over Germany was not included.
When drawing up the interconnectivity matrices, all types of long-distance transport were included, i.e. rail, road, inland waterway, air and maritime transport, but excluding pipelines. Moreover, a distinction was made by type of freight in freight transport and by trip purpose in passenger transport. The final report of work package 3 can be downloaded.